AUD/USD jumps above 0.6500 after hot Australian CPI data
AUD/USD extended gains and recaptured 0.6500 in Asian trading, following the release of hotter-than-expected Australian inflation data. The Australian CPI rose 1% in QoQ in Q1 against 0.8% forecast, providing extra legs to the Australian Dollar upside.
USD/JPY hangs near 34-year high at 154.88 as intervention risks loom
USD/JPY is sitting at a multi-decade high of 154.88 reached on Tuesday. Traders refrain from placing fresh bets on the pair as Japan's FX intervention risks loom. Broad US Dollar weakness also caps the upside in the major. US Durable Goods data are next on tap.
Gold price cautious despite weaker US Dollar and falling US yields
Gold retreats modestly after failing to sustain gains despite fall in US Treasury yields, weaker US Dollar. XAU/USD struggles to capitalize following release of weaker-than-expected S&P Global PMIs, fueling speculation about potential Fed rate cuts.
Ethereum ETF issuers not giving up fight, expert says as Grayscale files S3 prospectus
Ethereum exchange-traded funds theme gained steam after the landmark approval of multiple BTC ETFs in January. However, the campaign for approval of this investment alternative continues, with evidence of ongoing back and forth between prospective issuers and the US SEC.
US versus the Eurozone: Inflation divergence causes monetary desynchronization
Historically there is a very close correlation between changes in US Treasury yields and German Bund yields. This is relevant at the current juncture, considering that the recent hawkish twist in the tone of the Fed might continue to push US long-term interest rates higher and put upward pressure on bond yields in the Eurozone.
DEEPER DIVE
Cyclical outlook: Known unknowns
In the US, the latest Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia paints a rather upbeat picture of the economic outlook. A similar survey of the ECB points towards a gradual pickup in growth this year.
Building the future
There is a construction boom underway that is quietly transforming the production capabilities and other aspects of the US economy. The fastest-growing category within nonresidential construction in recent years has been manufacturing.
Addressing the public debt challenge in the EU
Recently an agreement has been reached between representatives of the European Council, the European Parliament, and the European Commission on a new economic governance framework.
FXS Signals
Technical Confluences Detector
XAU/USD struggles around $2,325 despite broad US Dollar’s weakness Premium
Spot Gold trades flat for the day around $2,326, recovering from an intraday low of $2,291.26. XAU/USD fell on the back of a better market mood, keeping the US Dollar on the back against most major currencies. The USD scenario partially changed after the release of discouraging US data, as the preliminary estimates of the April S&P Global PMIs missed the market’s expectations. The Manufacturing PMI shrank to 49.9 from 51.9 in March, while the Services PMI slid to 50.9 from 51.7. The Composite PMI resulted then in 50.9, down from 52.1 in the previous month.
Wall Street shrugged off the dismal figures and maintained a positive tone, but market players decided to sell the USD. Soft growth-related data may force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to trim interest rates sooner rather than later, somehow backing the better tone of equities.
CRYPTOCURRENCIES
Google, Apple could remove Binance from their app store on Philippines SEC request
The Philippines SEC has requested Google and Apple to remove applications controlled by Binance from their App stores. The exchange’s Philippines-based users are finding the exchange inaccessible to remove their funds.
XRP rallies as Ripple slams SEC for penalties, asks regulator to establish likelihood of future violations
Ripple filed its response to the SEC lawsuit on Monday, arguing that XRP institutional sales before and after the court ruling show no disregard for the law. The firm asks for a civil penalty of no more than $10 million against the $2 billion requested by the SEC.
Here’s why Ondo price hit new ATH amid bearish market outlook Premium
Ondo price shows no signs of slowing down after setting up an all-time high (ATH) at $1.05 on March 31. This development is likely to be followed by a correction and ATH but not necessarily in that order.
PENDLE price soars 10% after Arthur Hayes’ optimism on Pendle derivative exchange
Pendle price is among the top performers in the cryptocurrency market today, posting double-digit gains. Its peers in the altcoin space are not as forthcoming even as the market enjoys bullish sentiment inspired by Bitcoin (BTC) price.
THE STOCK OF THE DAY
TSLA sinks to lowest level in 15 months with earnings on tap Premium
Tesla (TSLA) sank 3.4% to close at $142.05 per share on Monday, just one day before the electric vehicle (EV) automaker is scheduled to deliver quarterly results. Tesla stock hasn’t traded this low since January 2023, a 15-month low
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
WEEKLY FORECAST
EUR/USD: Euro touches five-month low on growing expectations that ECB will ease before Fed Premium
EUR/USD managed to counter a poor start of the week and reverse course despite the European currency slipping back to the 1.0600 key support against the US Dollar (USD), or five-month lows.
GBP/USD: More downside for Pound Sterling remains on cards Premium
The Pound Sterling (GBP) accelerated its south run against the US Dollar (USD), knocking the GBP/USD pair to levels unseen since late November 2023.
US Dollar: Holding up gains amid hawkish Fed, geopolitical tensions Premium
The Greenback ended the week barely changed after the sharp increase recorded in the previous one, despite hitting new five-month peaks in the boundaries of 106.50 when tracked by the USD Index (DXY) on April 16.
Gold: Will geopolitics continue to drive XAU/USD? Premium
Gold (XAU/USD) price fluctuated in a relatively narrow range this week following the record-setting rally. Investors will continue to pay close attention to headlines surrounding the Iran-Israel conflict and scrutinize key macroeconomic data releases from the US next week.
Bitcoin: BTC post-halving rally could be partially priced in Premium
Bitcoin (BTC) price briefly slipped below the $60,000 level for the last three days, attracting buyers in this area as the fourth BTC halving is due in a few hours. Is the halving priced in for Bitcoin? Or will the pioneer crypto note more gains in the coming days?
Week ahead – US GDP and BoJ decision on top of next week’s agenda
US GDP, core PCE and PMIs the next tests for the Dollar. Investors await BoJ for guidance about next rate hike. EU and UK PMIs, as well as Australian CPIs also on tap. Earnings season heats up as tech giants report.